BUSINESS TRAVEL TRENDS SHAPING THE ROAD AHEAD IN 2027

Perhaps the most immediate takeaway from GBTA's latest forecast is that the extraordinary cost pressures affecting business travel are expected to moderate in 2027. That's welcome news. But it's important to distinguish slower price growth from falling prices.

Global airfares are forecast to increase by 4.7% in 2026, reaching an average of $756, while economy fares are expected to rise by 8.7%. Premium fares, including premium economy, business class and first class, are forecast to rise by 9.5%.

For 2027, the rate of increase is expected to slow significantly: overall airfares are forecast to rise by 1.5%, economy fares by 1.1% and premium fares by 2.2%. Hotels are following a similar pattern. Global hotel ADR is forecast to rise by 3.7% in 2026 to $168, before moderating to 1.8% growth in 2027, reaching $171.

In other words, relief is coming, but a return to pre-disruption pricing isn't.

GBTA identifies energy and labour costs as two of the biggest structural factors continuing to influence prices. Aircraft delivery delays, capacity constraints, workforce shortages, sustainable aviation fuel requirements and geopolitical uncertainty are also likely to keep costs higherthan they were before the current period of disruption

What does this mean for travel managers?

Cost control remains critical, but simply trying to reduce the number of trips isn't necessarily the answer. The smarter approach is to maximise the value of every journey through better forecasting, supplier negotiations, policy compliance, advance purchasing and more sophisticated use of travel data. That's where a well-managed travel programme can make a significant difference.

Airlines are likely to remain at the centre of the cost conversation in 2027. Aircraft supply constraints continue to affect the industry, while delayed deliveries are limiting the ability of airlines to add capacity in response to demand. At the same time, fuel and labour costs remain elevated.

GBTA expects North America and EMEA to experience some of the strongest airfare increases during 2026, while Latin America is benefiting from increasing capacity alongside demand. The picture, therefore, isn't uniform. And that's an increasingly important consideration for global travel programmes.

There is no single global business travel market.

Pricing, availability and demand can vary dramatically between countries, cities and routes. Travel managers will need to move beyond broad assumptions and use market-specific data to understand where the real opportunities and risks lie.

The global hotel market is also becoming increasingly regional. GBTA forecasts hotel rates to rise by 9.5% in Latin America during 2026, compared with 5% in APAC and 3.2% in North America. EMEA is the outlier, with hotel pricing forecast to increase by just 0.6%, reflecting softer demand in the region. At the same time, a record global hotel construction pipeline is helping to increase supply and moderate rate growth.

For corporate travel programmes, this creates an opportunity. Rather than relying on global hotel programmes or historic assumptions, organisations can increasingly use market-level intelligence to identify where negotiations, preferred properties and programme changes can deliver the greatest return.

The hotel strategy of tomorrow will be more targeted, more data-led and more dynamic.

After several years of disruption, the ground transportation market is beginning to look more predictable. Global car rental rates are forecast to rise 3.6% in 2026 to around $46.50 per day, before falling by 0.9% in 2027 to approximately $46.10. Improved vehicle availability and more stable fleet supply are helping to reduce some of the pricing pressure experienced in recent years.

For travel managers, that stability provides another opportunity to look beyond simply securing the lowest rate. The right ground transportation strategy can support traveller safety, productivity, sustainability and duty of care, particularly when integrated with the wider travel programme.

The return of face-to-face meetings shows no sign of disappearing. In fact, meetings and events continue to play an increasingly important role in the business travel ecosystem.

GBTA forecasts that the cost per meeting attendee per day will increase by around 3% in 2026 to $263, followed by a further 1.5% increase to $267 in 2027.

The principal sources of inflation are food and beverage, production and labour costs, while negotiated group hotel rates are expected to remain comparatively stable. This reinforces a broader trend we've seen across business travel: companies still believe in the value of bringing people together, but they're becoming much more focused on the return they get from doing so.

Artificial intelligence was inevitably one of the major themes at GBTA Convention 2026. But the conversation has matured. The question is no longer simply "What can AI do?" Increasingly, businesses are asking: "How can AI make travel better?" That means using AI to simplify booking, improve traveller support, identify savings opportunities, interpret complex travel data, personalise experiences and help travel managers make better decisions.

Importantly, the emphasis is shifting away from AI for its own sake. The most useful technology will be the technology that removes friction rather than adding another layer of complexity. At GBTA, discussions around AI increasingly centred on governance, integration and practical application, including how organisations can adopt increasingly autonomous technologies while maintaining policy compliance, security and control.

For corporate travel, the future is unlikely to be about people versus technology. It will be about people using technology better.

Another theme running through the Convention was the evolution of travel data.

Most organisations already have huge amounts of information about their travel activity. The challenge is turning that information into something useful. The next generation of travel programmes will increasingly move from reporting what happened to understanding what is likely to happen next.

• Which routes are becoming more expensive?
• Where is policy compliance weakening?
• Which suppliers are delivering the greatest value?
• Where are travellers choosing alternatives — and why?
• And perhaps most importantly: what business outcomes is travel actually delivering?

That final question is becoming increasingly important.

The return on investment from business travel has always mattered. But in an environment of higher costs and greater economic uncertainty, businesses are asking tougher questions about it. Travel is no longer simply an expense line. It's an investment in customers, relationships, collaboration, growth, talent and opportunity.

The challenge for travel managers is to demonstrate that value. That could mean connecting travel activity with sales performance, customer engagement, project delivery or employee outcomes. The conversation is therefore shifting from "How much are we spending on travel?" to "What are we achieving through travel?"

That's an important distinction, and one that will shape the evolution of corporate travel programmes over the next few years.

Sustainability has not disappeared from the business travel agenda. If anything, it is becoming more integrated into the wider discussion around programme strategy. The challenge is that sustainability increasingly needs to coexist with cost, traveller experience, business requirements and operational practicality.

Travel managers are therefore looking for better data and more meaningful choices:

• Which flight has the lower emissions?
• Can rail replace air on a particular route?
• Can a trip be combined with another journey?
• Are travellers choosing the most sustainable option available?
• And can organisations accurately measure the impact of the decisions they make?

The future of sustainable business travel will be less about broad commitments and more about measurable, informed decision-making.

Perhaps the most important message from Chicago wasn't technological at all.

For all the discussion around AI, automation, data and digital platforms, business travel remains fundamentally about people. People travelling to meet other people. People building relationships. People solving problems. People doing business.

The role of the travel management company is evolving accordingly. Technology can make journeys faster and more efficient, but travellers still need expertise when plans change, disruption occurs or circumstances become unpredictable. And travel managers need a partner who can combine technology, data and human expertise to make sense of an increasingly complicated travel environment.