{"id":306991,"date":"2026-05-04T10:12:53","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T09:12:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/?p=306991"},"modified":"2026-05-20T21:27:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T20:27:55","slug":"the-middle-east-crisis-and-the-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/en-au\/blog\/the-middle-east-crisis-and-the-iran-war\/","title":{"rendered":"The Middle East Crisis and the Iran War"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ fullwidth=”on” admin_label=”HEADER: Middle East & Iran Crisis” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ background_enable_image=”off” background_position=”top_center” locked=”off” collapsed=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_fullwidth_header title=”The Middle East Crisis” subhead=”What Rising Fuel Costs Mean for Global Air Travel, and the Reality Behind the Media Hype” admin_label=”HEADER: Middle East Crisis” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ title_font_size=”60px” subhead_line_height=”1.3em” background_color=”#414042″ background_image=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Aerial-View-Strait-Hormuz-WEB.jpg” parallax=”off” title_font_size_tablet=”60px” title_font_size_phone=”36px” title_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” subhead_font_size_tablet=”” subhead_font_size_phone=”21px” subhead_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” z_index_tablet=”500″ global_colors_info=”{}” button_one_text__hover_enabled=”on|desktop”][\/et_pb_fullwidth_header][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”SECTION – Intro” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”5%||5%||true|false” collapsed=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row column_structure=”1_2,1_2″ make_equal=”on” admin_label=”ROW – Intro” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” max_width=”1280px” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”1_2″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – Intro” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

The global aviation sector is once again navigating turbulence…<\/h3>\n

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This time it’s not being driven by demand shocks, but by geopolitics. The ongoing Iran conflict has rapidly evolved into a full-scale energy crisis, with profound implications for airline economics, corporate travel programmes, and traveller experience. For business travel managers and bookers, understanding what\u2019s happening, and knowing the truth behind the headlines – and what to do about it – has never been more important.<\/p>\n

In this article, we take a closer look at the situation in the Middle East and explain what rising fuel costs might mean for global air travel.<\/strong><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_button button_url=”#identify” button_text=”Explore more” admin_label=”BUTTON- Explore More” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_2″ module_class=”bg-image-column” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_image=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Airport-in-Morning-Crisis-WEB.jpg” box_shadow_style=”preset4″ global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_divider show_divider=”off” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”SECTION – The Root Cause” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” use_background_color_gradient=”on” background_color_gradient_stops=”rgba(91,140,177,0.8) 0%|rgba(91,140,177,0.8) 100%” background_color_gradient_overlays_image=”on” background_image=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Data-Abstract-WEB.jpg” locked=”off” collapsed=”on” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row column_structure=”1_5,3_5,1_5″ admin_label=”ROW – Root Cause” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color=”off” max_width=”1280px” custom_padding=”4%|4%|4%|4%|true|true” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”1_5″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”3_5″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”#FFFFFF” custom_padding=”5%|4%|5%|4%|true|true” box_shadow_style=”preset4″ global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_icon font_icon=”s||divi||400″ admin_label=”ICON – Warning” module_id=”identify” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_icon][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – The Root Cause” module_id=”pros-cons” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” header_text_color=”#FFFFFF” custom_margin=”0%||5%||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”0%||0%||false|false” custom_margin_phone=”||5%||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”” header_2_font_size_phone=”30px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

THE ROOT CAUSE<\/h2>\n

Fuel Supply Disruption<\/h4>\n

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At the heart of the issue lies the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, a critical artery through which roughly 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply<\/strong> typically flows. Disruption in this region has triggered a sharp spike in oil and jet fuel prices, with aviation fuel in some markets rising by 70% to over 100%<\/strong> in a matter of weeks.<\/p>\n

Unlike crude oil, jet fuel is less flexible in its supply chain. It depends on specific refining processes and established distribution networks, which are now under severe strain. As a result, the aviation industry is facing what many analysts describe as its most significant operational challenge since the pandemic.<\/strong><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_testimonial portrait_url=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Plane-Taking-Off-Sunset-WEB.jpg” quote_icon=”off” admin_label=”CALLOUT – Fuel Price” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

For context, fuel typically accounts for 20\u201330% of airline operating costs<\/strong>. When that cost doubles, the impact is immediate and far-reaching.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_testimonial][et_pb_button button_url=”#airlines” button_text=”What are Airlines Doing About It?” button_alignment=”center” admin_label=”BUTTON – What are Airlines Doing” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_5″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”SECTION – What Are Airlines Doing” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”3%||6%||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row admin_label=”ROW – Header” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” max_width=”1280px” custom_padding=”1%||1%||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – What Airlines Doing” module_id=”airlines” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”5%||1%||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

What Airlines are Doing<\/h2>\n

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Airlines have moved quickly to mitigate the financial shock, but the options are limited.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=”2_5,3_5″ use_custom_gutter=”on” gutter_width=”2″ make_equal=”on” admin_label=”ROW – Increasing Fares” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”#efefef” max_width=”1280px” custom_padding=”1%|1%|1%|1%|true|true” box_shadow_style=”preset1″ global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”2_5″ module_class=”bg-image-column” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color=”off” background_image=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Business-Traveller-Booking-Tickets-WEB.jpg” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_divider show_divider=”off” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”3_5″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – Increasing Fares” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

1) Limited Fare Increases<\/h4>\n

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We’ve seen some ticket prices rising across both short and long-haul routes; however,\u00a0 this is going to be seasonal as load factors increase – not just fuel prices. In some cases, surcharges are being applied retrospectively, particularly on group or specialist travel.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row admin_label=”ROW – Arrow” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” max_width=”1280px” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_icon font_icon=”?||divi||400″ admin_label=”ICON – Arrow” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”3%||3%||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_icon][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=”2_5,3_5″ use_custom_gutter=”on” gutter_width=”2″ make_equal=”on” admin_label=”ROW – Cutting Capacity” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”#efefef” max_width=”1280px” custom_padding=”1%|1%|1%|1%|true|true” box_shadow_style=”preset1″ locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”2_5″ module_class=”bg-image-column” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color=”off” background_image=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Empty-Plane-Seats-WEB.jpg” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_divider show_divider=”off” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”3_5″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – Cutting Capacity” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

2) Low Level Capacity Cuts<\/h4>\n

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Globally, airlines have removed significant numbers of seats from schedules. Around 2 million seats have been cut in May alone, but these are as carriers scale back unprofitable routes, as well as conserving fuel.<\/p>\n

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3) Restructuring Routes<\/h4>\n

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Long-haul routes, especially those connecting Europe and Asia via the Middle East, are most affected. Airspace closures have forced rerouting, which can increase flight times and fuel burn.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row admin_label=”ROW – Arrow” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” max_width=”1280px” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ admin_label=”Column” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_icon font_icon=”?||divi||400″ admin_label=”ICON – Arrow” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”3%||3%||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_icon][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=”2_5,3_5″ use_custom_gutter=”on” gutter_width=”2″ make_equal=”on” admin_label=”ROW – Accelerate Fleet” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”#efefef” max_width=”1280px” custom_padding=”1%|1%|1%|1%|true|true” box_shadow_style=”preset1″ locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”2_5″ module_class=”bg-image-column” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color=”off” background_image=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Plane-Retired-Hanger-WEB-1.jpg” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_divider show_divider=”off” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”3_5″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – Accelerate Fleet” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

4) Accelerating Fleet Efficiency<\/h4>\n

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Airlines are prioritising newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft and retiring older fleets faster than planned. While this is positive in the long-term, it can reduce its short-term capacity.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”SECTION – What this means Business Travel” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” use_background_color_gradient=”on” background_color_gradient_stops=”rgba(0,0,0,0.65) 0%|rgba(0,0,0,0.65) 100%” background_color_gradient_overlays_image=”on” background_image=”https:\/\/www.gdg.travel\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Busy-Generic-Commute-Train.png” custom_padding=”5%||5%||true|false” collapsed=”on” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row admin_label=”ROW – What this means Business Travel” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” max_width=”1280px” custom_padding=”0%||0%||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – What this means Business Travel” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” header_2_text_color=”#FFFFFF” custom_margin=”5%||2%||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

What This Means for Business Travel
and the Reality Behind the Media Hype<\/h2>\n

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For corporate travel programmes, the implications extend beyond potentially higher ticket prices. But we’re also seeing creativity and resilience on the side of the airlines, to support businesses and keep travellers travelling.<\/p>\n

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Fuel Reality<\/h3>\n

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The latest quote from Airline UK CEO, Time Alderslade:
“UK airlines are operating normally and fuel supplies remain stable with good visibility. To be clear, no flights are being cancelled due to fuel shortages and reports to this effect are incorrect.”<\/span><\/p>\n

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Budget Volatility<\/h3>\n

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Travel budgets set even a quarter ago may now be under pressure. With jet fuel prices rising in some regions, some airlines are passing through costs quickly and dynamically.<\/p>\n

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Low Disruption<\/h3>\n

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For the month of May, less tha 1% of all scheduled flights from the UK to global destinations have been cancelled due to fuel shortages. The data shows relatively limited changes in scheduled flights and seat capacity.
[Cirium data]<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row admin_label=”ROW – Divider” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” max_width=”1280px” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_divider divider_position=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”2%||2%||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row admin_label=”ROW -Button” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_button button_url=”#practical-guide” button_text=”PRACTICAL GUIDANCE FOR TRAVEL MANAGERS AND BOOKERS” button_alignment=”center” admin_label=”BUTTON – Practical Guidance” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”SECTION – Practical Guidance ” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row admin_label=”ROW – Practical Guidance” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” max_width=”1280px” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text admin_label=”HEADER – Practical Guidance (intro)” module_id=”practical-guide” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”3%||3%||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

Practical Guidance for Travel Managers and Bookers<\/h2>\n

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The reality is, at least from Gray Dawes Travel’s experience, that it’s very much business as usual. We are advising our clients to be cautious, but there’s nothing to stop them from travelling.<\/strong><\/p>\n

While the macro environment is outside anyone\u2019s control, there are several practical steps organisations can take to maintain programme resilience.<\/p>\n

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Reforecast & Communicate Early<\/h3>\n

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Revisit travel budgets now. Build in contingency for continued fuel volatility over the next 3\u20136 months. Clear communication with stakeholders is essential to manage expectations around rising costs.<\/p>\n

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Book Earlier, But Smarter<\/h3>\n

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Advance booking remains key, but flexibility matters more than ever. Prioritise fares that allow changes, especially for critical trips. With schedules shifting frequently, rigidity can become costly.<\/p>\n

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Diversify Carriers & Routes<\/h3>\n

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Avoid over-reliance on a single airline or hub. Explore alternative routings that bypass high-risk regions. Secondary hubs or indirect routes may offer greater reliability, even if they end up being slightly longer.<\/p>\n

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Strengthen Policy Compliance<\/h3>\n

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In times of unexpected global volatility, unmanaged bookings can significantly inflate costs. Reinforce policy adherence and consider tightening controls around premium cabin usage unless it’s absolutely justified.<\/p>\n

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Leverage TMC Expertise<\/h3>\n

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Gray Dawes Travel are closely monitoring airline capacity, fare movements, and disruption trends in real time. Use this insight to guide booking strategies and traveller communications.<\/p>\n

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Review Travel Necessity<\/h3>\n

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This is an opportunity to reassess the value of each trip. Hybrid working has already reshaped travel demand, now is the time to prioritise high-impact journeys and consider virtual alternatives where appropriate.<\/p>\n

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Advice for Travellers<\/h3>\n

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Business travellers themselves will benefit from adapting to the new environment.<\/p>\n